Takeaways – NAIOP Forecast January

January 31, 2017
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This time I am going to talk about two events, both which featured speakers forecasting on the state of the economy, nationally and globally. As you can image I could inundate you with the slides and information that they provided. But I thought it would be cool to compare any similarities or contradictions in their presentations. Overall they both agreed that there is still energy left for the US economy to run!!

Thursday, January 20th the Southern Nevada NAIOP Chapter and UNLV Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies had their annual Forecast event. It was a half day with 3 segments, but I will focus on the keynote address from Dr. Mark Dotzour, Real Estate Economist who remarked on the Outlook for Commercial Real Estate.

If you’ve never heard Dr. Dotzour, he’s a real treat. This was the 7th time I’ve heard him present and he always delivers.  He is as humorous as he is real.  Below are the bullet points of only a few take-aways.

  • The facts of the economy do not match up with either Fox News or MSNBC
  • There are no signs at all of an economic recession
  • He called the US economy to be in the Sixth Inning (of a baseball game)
  • There are 5.5 million job openings in America
  • National economy is at full employment – Labor is tight
  • Wages are actually increasing – when wages go up, people buy stuff
  • Consumer confidence is high (see below why this is so significant)
  • Small business confidence went down last quarter – sign that we are in the later innings
  • Foreign investment in US real estate will continue despite a strengthening Dollar
  • Although it is hard for GM to compete with Toyota when the Dollar is strong

Wednesday, January 25th my Vistage Group brought in Alex Chausovsky with ITR Economics. This was my first time hearing Alex, but let me tell you, his presentation was fluid. It was timely that he wove his story as an immigrant to the US into his talk reminding us all that there are “developed” countries in the world where you can’t even flush toilet paper down the toilet.

  • The US economy is not partial to either Republican or Democrat administrations
  • Data does not support the rhetoric of an economic recession
  • The US economy is 10% larger than pre-recession peak
  • US GDB by consumption = 66% Personal Consumption, 18% Government Spending, 16% Business Investment
  • Strong US Dollar is impacting imports
  • US Unemployment Rate = 4.6% | Nevada Unemployment = 5.2%
  • US Median Home Sale Prices = $230,300 | Nevada Median Home Sale Prices = $152,700
  • Next recession predicted around 2019
  • Next global recession predicted in 2029 – read this book for more details – Prosperity in The Age of Decline

NAIOP, the Commercial Real Estate Development Association, is the leading organization for developers, owners and related professionals in office, industrial and mixed-use real estate.

The Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies was established in 1989 by the Lee Business School at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas to foster excellence in real estate education and research.

Since 1957, Vistage has been bringing together successful CEOs, executives and business owners into private peer advisory groups guided by expert executive coaches, known as Vistage Chairs.


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